A1 Alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä aikakauslehdessä
Study of irregular dynamics in an economic model : attractor localization and Lyapunov exponents (2021)

Alexeeva, T. A., Kuznetsov, N. V., & Mokaev, T. N. (2021). Study of irregular dynamics in an economic model : attractor localization and Lyapunov exponents. Chaos, Solitons and Fractals, 152, Article 111365. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2021.111365

JYU-tekijät tai -toimittajat

Julkaisun tiedot

Julkaisun kaikki tekijät tai toimittajat: Alexeeva, Tatyana A.; Kuznetsov, Nikolay V.; Mokaev, Timur N.

Lehti tai sarja: Chaos, Solitons and Fractals

ISSN: 0960-0779

eISSN: 1873-2887

Julkaisuvuosi: 2021

Volyymi: 152

Artikkelinumero: 111365

Kustantaja: Elsevier

Julkaisumaa: Britannia

Julkaisun kieli: englanti

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2021.111365

Julkaisun avoin saatavuus: Avoimesti saatavilla

Julkaisukanavan avoin saatavuus: Osittain avoin julkaisukanava

Julkaisu on rinnakkaistallennettu (JYX): https://jyx.jyu.fi/handle/123456789/77952

Rinnakkaistallenteen verkko-osoite (pre-print): https://arxiv.org/abs/2107.13907

Tiivistelmä

Cyclicality and instability inherent in the economy can manifest themselves in irregular fluctuations, including chaotic ones, which significantly reduces the accuracy of forecasting the dynamics of the economic system in the long run. We focus on an approach, associated with the identification of a deterministic endogenous mechanism of irregular fluctuations in the economy. Using of a mid-size firm model as an example, we demonstrate the use of effective analytical and numerical procedures for calculating the quantitative characteristics of its irregular limiting dynamics based on Lyapunov exponents, such as dimension and entropy. We use an analytical approach for localization of a global attractor and study limiting dynamics of the model. We estimate the Lyapunov exponents and get the exact formula for the Lyapunov dimension of the global attractor of this model analytically. With the help of delayed feedback control (DFC), the possibility of transition from irregular limiting dynamics to regular periodic dynamics is shown to solve the problem of reliable forecasting. At the same time, we demonstrate the complexity and ambiguity of applying numerical procedures to calculate the Lyapunov dimension along different trajectories of the global attractor, including unstable periodic orbits (UPOs).

YSO-asiasanat: taloudelliset mallit; taloudelliset ennusteet; kausivaihtelut; dynaamiset systeemit; attraktorit; kaaosteoria

Vapaat asiasanat: Lyapunov exponents; Lyapunov dimension; Unstable periodic orbit; Absorbing set; Mid-size firm model

Liittyvät organisaatiot

OKM-raportointi: Kyllä

VIRTA-lähetysvuosi: 2021

JUFO-taso: 1