A1 Journal article (refereed)
A model of COVID-19 pandemic evolution in African countries (2021)

Amouzouvi, K., Assamagan, K. A., Azote, S., Connell, S. H., Fankam Fankam, J. B., Fanomezana, F., Guga, A., Haliya, C. E., Mabote, T. S., Macucule, F. F., Mathebula, D., Muronga, A., Mwale, K. C., Njeri, A., Onyie, E. F., Rakotondravohitra, L., & Zimba, G. (2021). A model of COVID-19 pandemic evolution in African countries. Scientific African, 14, Article e00987. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sciaf.2021.e00987

JYU authors or editors

Publication details

All authors or editors: Amouzouvi, Kossi; Assamagan, Kétévi A.; Azote, Somiéalo; Connell, Simon H.; Fankam Fankam, Jean Baptiste; Fanomezana, Fenosoa; Guga, Aluwani; Haliya, Cyrille E.; Mabote, Toivo S.; Macucule, Francisco Fenias; et al.

Journal or series: Scientific African

eISSN: 2468-2276

Publication year: 2021

Volume: 14

Article number: e00987

Publisher: Elsevier BV

Publication country: Netherlands

Publication language: English

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sciaf.2021.e00987

Publication open access: Openly available

Publication channel open access: Open Access channel

Publication is parallel published: https://arxiv.org/abs/2104.09675


We studied the COVID-19 pandemic evolution in selected African countries. For each country considered, we modeled simultaneously the data of the active, recovered and death cases. In this study, we used a year of data since the first cases were reported. We estimated the time-dependent basic reproduction numbers, R0, and the fractions of infected but unaffected populations, to offer insights into containment and vaccine strategies in African countries. We found that at the start of the pandemic but has since fallen to R0 ≤ 4. The unaffected fractions of the populations studied vary between 1-10 % of the recovered cases.

Keywords: communicable diseases; pandemics; COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2 virus; mathematical models

Free keywords: COVID-19; SIDARTHE; basic reproduction number; SARS-CoV-2

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Ministry reporting: Yes

Preliminary JUFO rating: 1

Last updated on 2021-25-10 at 12:57