A1 Journal article (refereed)
A Bayesian spatio‐temporal analysis of markets during the Finnish 1860s famine (2022)

Pasanen, T., Voutilainen, M., Helske, J., & Högmander, H. (2022). A Bayesian spatio‐temporal analysis of markets during the Finnish 1860s famine. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C: Applied Statistics, 71(5), 1282-1302. https://doi.org/10.1111/rssc.12577

JYU authors or editors

Publication details

All authors or editorsPasanen, Tiia‐Maria; Voutilainen, Miikka; Helske, Jouni; Högmander, Harri

Journal or seriesJournal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C: Applied Statistics



Publication year2022

Publication date20/06/2022


Issue number5

Pages range1282-1302


Publication countryUnited Kingdom

Publication languageEnglish


Publication open accessOpenly available

Publication channel open accessPartially open access channel

Publication is parallel published (JYX)https://jyx.jyu.fi/handle/123456789/82081

Web address of parallel published publication (pre-print)https://arxiv.org/abs/2106.06268


We develop a Bayesian spatio-temporal model to study pre-industrial grain market integration during the Finnish famine of the 1860s. Our model takes into account several problematic features often present when analysing multiple spatially interdependent time series. For example, compared with the error correction methodology commonly applied in econometrics, our approach allows simultaneous modelling of multiple interdependent time series avoiding cumbersome statistical testing needed to predetermine the market leader as a point of reference. Furthermore, introducing a flexible spatio-temporal structure enables analysing detailed regional and temporal dynamics of the market mechanisms. Applying the proposed method, we detected spatially asymmetric ‘price ripples’ that spread out from the shock origin. We corroborated the existing literature on the speedier adjustment to emerging price differentials during the famine, but we observed this principally in urban markets. This hastened return to long-run equilibrium means faster and longer travel of price shocks, implying prolonged out-of-equilibrium dynamics, proliferated influence of market shocks, and, importantly, a wider spread of famine conditions.

Keywordsfamine of 1866-1868grain trademarkets (systems)price developmenteconomic historyeconometric modelstime seriestime-series analysisBayesian analysis

Free keywordsBayesian statistics; error correction model; Finnish famine; marketintegration; spatio-temporal model

Contributing organizations

Related projects

Ministry reportingYes

Reporting Year2022

JUFO rating2

Last updated on 2024-15-06 at 01:46