A1 Alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä aikakauslehdessä
A Bayesian spatio‐temporal analysis of markets during the Finnish 1860s famine (2022)


Pasanen, T., Voutilainen, M., Helske, J., & Högmander, H. (2022). A Bayesian spatio‐temporal analysis of markets during the Finnish 1860s famine. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C: Applied Statistics, 71(5), 1282-1302. https://doi.org/10.1111/rssc.12577


JYU-tekijät tai -toimittajat


Julkaisun tiedot

Julkaisun kaikki tekijät tai toimittajatPasanen, Tiia‐Maria; Voutilainen, Miikka; Helske, Jouni; Högmander, Harri

Lehti tai sarjaJournal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C: Applied Statistics

ISSN0035-9254

eISSN1467-9876

Julkaisuvuosi2022

Ilmestymispäivä20.06.2022

Volyymi71

Lehden numero5

Artikkelin sivunumerot1282-1302

KustantajaWiley-Blackwell

JulkaisumaaBritannia

Julkaisun kielienglanti

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1111/rssc.12577

Julkaisun avoin saatavuusAvoimesti saatavilla

Julkaisukanavan avoin saatavuusOsittain avoin julkaisukanava

Julkaisu on rinnakkaistallennettu (JYX)https://jyx.jyu.fi/handle/123456789/82081

Rinnakkaistallenteen verkko-osoite (pre-print)https://arxiv.org/abs/2106.06268


Tiivistelmä

We develop a Bayesian spatio-temporal model to study pre-industrial grain market integration during the Finnish famine of the 1860s. Our model takes into account several problematic features often present when analysing multiple spatially interdependent time series. For example, compared with the error correction methodology commonly applied in econometrics, our approach allows simultaneous modelling of multiple interdependent time series avoiding cumbersome statistical testing needed to predetermine the market leader as a point of reference. Furthermore, introducing a flexible spatio-temporal structure enables analysing detailed regional and temporal dynamics of the market mechanisms. Applying the proposed method, we detected spatially asymmetric ‘price ripples’ that spread out from the shock origin. We corroborated the existing literature on the speedier adjustment to emerging price differentials during the famine, but we observed this principally in urban markets. This hastened return to long-run equilibrium means faster and longer travel of price shocks, implying prolonged out-of-equilibrium dynamics, proliferated influence of market shocks, and, importantly, a wider spread of famine conditions.


YSO-asiasanatsuuret nälkävuodet (1866–1868)viljakauppamarkkinat (taloustiede)hintakehitystaloushistoriaekonometriset mallitaikasarjataikasarja-analyysibayesilainen menetelmä

Vapaat asiasanatBayesian statistics; error correction model; Finnish famine; marketintegration; spatio-temporal model


Liittyvät organisaatiot


Hankkeet, joissa julkaisu on tehty


OKM-raportointiKyllä

Raportointivuosi2022

JUFO-taso2


Viimeisin päivitys 2024-03-04 klo 19:37