A1 Alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä aikakauslehdessä
A Bayesian spatio‐temporal analysis of markets during the Finnish 1860s famine (2022)

Pasanen, T., Voutilainen, M., Helske, J., & Högmander, H. (2022). A Bayesian spatio‐temporal analysis of markets during the Finnish 1860s famine. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C: Applied Statistics, 71(5), 1282-1302. https://doi.org/10.1111/rssc.12577

JYU-tekijät tai -toimittajat

Pasanen, Tiia-MariaHelske, Jouni
Voutilainen, Miikka

Högmander, Harri

Julkaisun tiedot

Julkaisun kaikki tekijät tai toimittajat: Pasanen, Tiia‐Maria; Voutilainen, Miikka; Helske, Jouni; Högmander, Harri

Lehti tai sarja: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C: Applied Statistics

ISSN: 0035-9254

eISSN: 1467-9876

Julkaisuvuosi: 2022

Ilmestymispäivä: 20.06.2022

Volyymi: 71

Lehden numero: 5

Artikkelin sivunumerot: 1282-1302

Kustantaja: Wiley-Blackwell

Julkaisumaa: Britannia

Julkaisun kieli: englanti

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/rssc.12577

Julkaisun avoin saatavuus: Avoimesti saatavilla

Julkaisukanavan avoin saatavuus: Osittain avoin julkaisukanava

Julkaisu on rinnakkaistallennettu (JYX): https://jyx.jyu.fi/handle/123456789/82081

Rinnakkaistallenteen verkko-osoite (pre-print): https://arxiv.org/abs/2106.06268

Tiivistelmä

We develop a Bayesian spatio-temporal model to study pre-industrial grain market integration during the Finnish famine of the 1860s. Our model takes into account several problematic features often present when analysing multiple spatially interdependent time series. For example, compared with the error correction methodology commonly applied in econometrics, our approach allows simultaneous modelling of multiple interdependent time series avoiding cumbersome statistical testing needed to predetermine the market leader as a point of reference. Furthermore, introducing a flexible spatio-temporal structure enables analysing detailed regional and temporal dynamics of the market mechanisms. Applying the proposed method, we detected spatially asymmetric ‘price ripples’ that spread out from the shock origin. We corroborated the existing literature on the speedier adjustment to emerging price differentials during the famine, but we observed this principally in urban markets. This hastened return to long-run equilibrium means faster and longer travel of price shocks, implying prolonged out-of-equilibrium dynamics, proliferated influence of market shocks, and, importantly, a wider spread of famine conditions.

YSO-asiasanat: suuret nälkävuodet (1866–1868); viljakauppa; markkinat (taloustiede); hintakehitys; taloushistoria; ekonometriset mallit; aikasarjat; aikasarja-analyysi; bayesilainen menetelmä