A1 Journal article (refereed)
Towards sustainable mobility : Transformative scenarios for 2034 (2022)

Kiviluoto, K., Tapio, P., Tuominen, A., Lyytimäki, J., Ahokas, I., Silonsaari, J., & Schwanen, T. (2022). Towards sustainable mobility : Transformative scenarios for 2034. Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives, 16, Article 100690. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trip.2022.100690

The research was funded by Strategic Research Council at the Research Council of Finland.

JYU authors or editors

Publication details

All authors or editors: Kiviluoto, Katariina; Tapio, Petri; Tuominen, Anu; Lyytimäki, Jari; Ahokas, Ira; Silonsaari, Jonne; Schwanen, Tim

Journal or series: Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives

ISSN: 2590-1982

eISSN: 2590-1982

Publication year: 2022

Publication date: 28/09/2022

Volume: 16

Article number: 100690

Publisher: Elsevier

Publication country: United Kingdom

Publication language: English

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trip.2022.100690

Publication open access: Openly available

Publication channel open access: Open Access channel

Publication is parallel published (JYX): https://jyx.jyu.fi/handle/123456789/83475

Abstract

Increasing the share of walking and cycling is one of the building blocks of sustainable mobility transformation. Fundamental changes are needed in society and urban structure to support the integration of walking and cycling into everyday routines. We conducted an online Delphi study with 30 walking and cycling experts during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Finland in the spring of 2020. The aim was to explore transport experts’ views on the future and derive scenarios of walking and cycling with the broader context of the urban mobility system. The scenarios were created using a combination of cluster analysis and qualitative content analysis. In addition, a methodological elaboration of the Disaggregative Delphi analysis was introduced, systematising the analysis of qualitative data. The analysis resulted in five scenarios depicting walking and cycling in 2034: 1. Business as Usual Plus, 2. The Demise of Bus-Transport, 3. The Era of Soft Modes, 4. Public Transport Serving All, and 5. Car-dependent Lifestyles Persist. The scenario set can be used as a basis for strategic transport planning and policy as well as a more practical tool for identifying measures for walking and cycling promotion in urban areas.

Keywords: passenger traffic; transport planning; sustainable development; sustainable living; cycling; walking (mode of transport); scenarios; Delphi method; futures research

Free keywords: sustainable mobility; walking; cycling; Delphi-method; scenarios; disaggregative Delphi; alternative futures

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Ministry reporting: Yes

Reporting Year: 2022

JUFO rating: 1