A1 Alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä aikakauslehdessä
Spatio-temporal modeling of co-dynamics of smallpox, measles, and pertussis in pre-healthcare Finland (2024)

Pasanen, T.-M., Helske, J., Högmander, H., & Ketola, T. (2024). Spatio-temporal modeling of co-dynamics of smallpox, measles, and pertussis in pre-healthcare Finland. PeerJ, 12, Article e18155. https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.18155

JYU-tekijät tai -toimittajat

Pasanen, Tiia-Maria
Helske, Jouni
Högmander, Harri
Ketola, Tarmo

Julkaisun tiedot

Julkaisun kaikki tekijät tai toimittajat: Pasanen, Tiia-Maria; Helske, Jouni; Högmander, Harri; Ketola, Tarmo

Lehti tai sarja: PeerJ

eISSN: 2167-8359

Julkaisuvuosi: 2024

Ilmestymispäivä: 26.09.2024

Volyymi: 12

Artikkelinumero: e18155

Kustantaja: PeerJ Inc.

Julkaisumaa: Yhdysvallat (USA)

Julkaisun kieli: englanti

DOI: https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.18155

Linkki tutkimusaineistoon: https://github.com/tihepasa/infectionDynamics/releases/tag/v2.0.2

Julkaisun avoin saatavuus: Avoimesti saatavilla

Julkaisukanavan avoin saatavuus: Kokonaan avoin julkaisukanava

Julkaisu on rinnakkaistallennettu (JYX): https://jyx.jyu.fi/handle/123456789/97610

Rinnakkaistallenteen verkko-osoite (pre-print): https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2310.06538

Tiivistelmä

Infections are known to interact as previous infections may have an effect on risk of succumbing to a new infection. The co-dynamics can be mediated by immunosuppression or modulation, shared environmental or climatic drivers, or competition for susceptible hosts. Research and statistical methods in epidemiology often concentrate on large pooled datasets, or high quality data from cities, leaving rural areas underrepresented in literature. Data considering rural populations are typically sparse and scarce, especially in the case of historical data sources, which may introduce considerable methodological challenges. In order to overcome many obstacles due to such data, we present a general Bayesian spatio-temporal model for disease co-dynamics. Applying the proposed model on historical (1820–1850) Finnish parish register data, we study the spread of infectious diseases in pre-healthcare Finland. We observe that measles, pertussis, and smallpox exhibit positively correlated dynamics, which could be attributed to immunosuppressive effects or, for example, the general weakening of the population due to recurring infections or poor nutritional conditions.

YSO-asiasanat: infektiot; hinkuyskä; isorokko; tuhkarokko; bayesilainen menetelmä; kirkonkirjat; epidemiat; epidemiologia