A1 Journal article (refereed)
Integrating risk management tools for regional forest planning : an interactive multiobjective value at risk approach (2018)

Eyvindson, K., Hartikainen, M., Miettinen, K., & Kangas, A. (2018). Integrating risk management tools for regional forest planning : an interactive multiobjective value at risk approach. Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 48(7), 766-773. https://doi.org/10.1139/cjfr-2017-0365

JYU authors or editors

Publication details

All authors or editors: Eyvindson, Kyle; Hartikainen, Markus; Miettinen, Kaisa; Kangas, Annika

Journal or series: Canadian Journal of Forest Research

ISSN: 0045-5067

eISSN: 1208-6037

Publication year: 2018

Volume: 48

Issue number: 7

Pages range: 766-773

Publisher: NRC Research Press

Place of Publication: Ottawa

Publication country: Canada

Publication language: English

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1139/cjfr-2017-0365

Publication open access: Not open

Publication channel open access: 

Publication is parallel published (JYX): https://jyx.jyu.fi/handle/123456789/58747

Abstract

In this paper, we present an approach employing multiobjective optimization to support decision making in forest management planning under risk. The primary objectives are biodiversity and timber cash flow, evaluated from two perspectives: the expected value and the value-at-risk (VaR). In addition, the risk level for both the timber cash flow and biodiversity values are included as objectives. With our approach, we highlight the trade-off between the expected value and the VaR, as well as between the VaRs of the two objectives of interest. We employ an interactive method in which a decision maker iteratively provides preference information to find the most preferred management plan and learns about the interdependencies of the objectives at the same time. The method is illustrated with a case study in which biodiversity is assessed through an index calculated from the characteristics of the forest. Uncertainty is included both through modifying the input data according to the accuracy of current inventory methods and through growth model errors. This uncertainty is described using a set of 25 scenarios. Involving multiple components of risk is a highly relevant approach in multiobjective forestry; however, estimation of the uncertainty of biodiversity needs further attention.

Keywords: silviculture; forest management planning; risk assessment; risk management; uncertainty; forest management

Free keywords: multiobjective optimization; interactive multiobjective optimization; Pareto optimality; Biodiversity; Economic and social effects; Forestry; Iterative methods; Pareto principle; Risk management; Risk perception; Timber; Value engineering; Multiobjective optimization

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Ministry reporting: Yes

Reporting Year: 2018

JUFO rating: 3