A1 Journal article (refereed)
The value of perfect and imperfect information in lake monitoring and management (2020)

Koski, V., Kotamäki, N., Hämäläinen, H., Meissner, K., Karvanen, J., & Kärkkäinen, S. (2020). The value of perfect and imperfect information in lake monitoring and management. Science of the Total Environment, 726, Article 138396. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138396

JYU authors or editors

Publication details

All authors or editors: Koski, Vilja; Kotamäki, Niina; Hämäläinen, Heikki; Meissner, Kristian; Karvanen, Juha; Kärkkäinen, Salme

Journal or series: Science of the Total Environment

ISSN: 0048-9697

eISSN: 1879-1026

Publication year: 2020

Volume: 726

Article number: 138396

Publisher: Elsevier

Publication country: Netherlands

Publication language: English

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138396

Publication open access: Openly available

Publication channel open access: Partially open access channel

Publication is parallel published (JYX): https://jyx.jyu.fi/handle/123456789/68827

Abstract

Uncertainty in the information obtained through monitoring complicates decision making about aquatic ecosystems management actions. We suggest the value of information (VOI) to assess the profitability of paying for additional monitoring information, when taking into account the costs and benefits of monitoring and management actions, as well as associated uncertainty. Estimating the monetary value of the ecosystem needed for deriving VOI is challenging. Therefore, instead of considering a single value, we evaluate the sensitivity of VOI to varying monetary value. We also extend the VOI analysis to the more realistic context where additional information does not result in perfect, but rather in imperfect information on the true state of the environment. Therefore, we analytically derive the value of perfect information in the case of two alternative decisions and two states of uncertainty. Second, we describe a Monte Carlo type of approach to evaluate the value of imperfect information about a continuous classification variable. Third, we determine confidence intervals for the VOI with a percentile bootstrap method. Results for our case study on 144 Finnish lakes suggest that generally, the value of monitoring exceeds the cost. It is particularly profitable to monitor lakes that meet the quality standards a priori, to ascertain that expensive and unnecessary management can be avoided. The VOI analysis provides a novel tool for lake and other environmental managers to estimate the value of additional monitoring data for a particular, single case, e.g. a lake, when an additional benefit is attainable through remedial management actions.

Keywords: environmental control; environmental management; lakes; state of waters; monitoring; decision making; information (data); statistical models

Free keywords: decision making; environmental management; imperfect information; lakes; perfect information; value of information

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Ministry reporting: Yes

Reporting Year: 2020

JUFO rating: 2