A1 Journal article (refereed)
Trade-offs between ecosystem service provision and the predisposition to disturbances : a NFI-based scenario analysis (2020)


Temperli, C., Blattert, C., Stadelmann, G., Brändli, U.-B., & Thürig, E. (2020). Trade-offs between ecosystem service provision and the predisposition to disturbances : a NFI-based scenario analysis. Forest Ecosystems, 7, Article 27. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40663-020-00236-1


JYU authors or editors


Publication details

All authors or editorsTemperli, Christian; Blattert, Clemens; Stadelmann, Golo; Brändli, Urs-Beat; Thürig, Esther

Journal or seriesForest Ecosystems

ISSN2095-6355

eISSN2197-5620

Publication year2020

Volume7

Article number27

PublisherSpringer

Publication countryGermany

Publication languageEnglish

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1186/s40663-020-00236-1

Publication open accessOpenly available

Publication channel open accessOpen Access channel

Publication is parallel published (JYX)https://jyx.jyu.fi/handle/123456789/68737


Abstract

Background
Scenario analyses that evaluate management effects on the long-term provision and sustainability of forest ecosystem services and biodiversity (ESB) also need to account for disturbances. The objectives of this study were to reveal potential trade-offs and synergies between ESB provision and disturbance predisposition at the scale of a whole country.

Methods
The empirical scenario model MASSIMO was used to simulate forest development and management from years 2016 to 2106 on 5086 sample plots of the Swiss National Forest Inventory (NFI). We included a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and four scenarios of increased timber harvesting. Model output was evaluated with indicators for 1) ESB provision including a) timber production, b) old-growth forest characteristics as biodiversity proxies and c) protection against rockfall and avalanches and 2) for a) storm and b) bark beetle predisposition.

Results
The predisposition indicators corresponded well (AUC: 0.71–0.86) to storm and insect (mostly bark beetle) damage observations in logistic regression models. Increased timber production was generally accompanied with decreased predisposition (storm: >−11%, beetle: >−37%, depending on region and scenario), except for a scenario that promoted conifers where beetle predisposition increased (e.g. + 61% in the Southern Alps). Decreased disturbance predisposition and decreases in old-growth forest indicators in scenarios of increased timber production revealed a trade-off situation. In contrast, growing stock increased under BAU management along with a reduction in conifer proportions, resulting in a reduction of beetle predisposition that in turn was accompanied by increasing old-growth forest indicators. Disturbance predisposition was elevated in NFI plots with high avalanche and rockfall protection value.

Conclusions
By evaluating ESB and disturbance predisposition based on single-tree data at a national scale we bridged a gap between detailed, stand-scale assessments and broader inventory-based approaches at the national scale. We discuss the limitations of the indicator framework and advocate for future amendments that include climate-sensitive forest development and disturbance modelling to strengthen decision making in national forest policy making.


Keywordssustainable forest managementecosystem servicesforest management planningnational forest inventoryforest managementinterferencesmodels (objects)scenarios

Free keywordsdisturbance; ecosystem services; empirical model; forest inventory; scenario analysis


Contributing organizations


Ministry reportingYes

Reporting Year2020

JUFO rating1


Last updated on 2024-26-03 at 09:18