A1 Alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä aikakauslehdessä
A bark beetle infestation predictive model based on satellite data in the frame of decision support system TANABBO (2020)
Duriaciova, R., Munko, M., Barka, I., Koren, M., Resnerova, K., Holusa, J., Blazenec, M., Potterf, M., & Jakus, R. (2020). A bark beetle infestation predictive model based on satellite data in the frame of decision support system TANABBO. iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry, 13(3), 215-223. https://doi.org/10.3832/ifor3271-013
JYU-tekijät tai -toimittajat
Julkaisun tiedot
Julkaisun kaikki tekijät tai toimittajat: Duriaciova, R.; Munko, M.; Barka, I.; Koren, M.; Resnerova, K.; Holusa, J.; Blazenec, M,; Potterf, M.; Jakus, R.
Lehti tai sarja: iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry
eISSN: 1971-7458
Julkaisuvuosi: 2020
Volyymi: 13
Lehden numero: 3
Artikkelin sivunumerot: 215-223
Kustantaja: Societa Italiana di Selvicoltura ed Ecologia Forestale (SISEF)
Julkaisumaa: Italia
Julkaisun kieli: englanti
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3832/ifor3271-013
Julkaisun avoin saatavuus: Avoimesti saatavilla
Julkaisukanavan avoin saatavuus: Kokonaan avoin julkaisukanava
Julkaisu on rinnakkaistallennettu (JYX): https://jyx.jyu.fi/handle/123456789/69815
Tiivistelmä
The European spruce bark beetle Ips typographus L. causes significant economic losses in managed coniferous forests in Central and Northern Europe. New infestations either occur in previously undisturbed forest stands (i.e., spot initiation) or depend on proximity to previous years’ infestations (i.e., spot spreading). Early identification of newly infested trees over the forested landscape limits the effective control measures. Accurate forecasting of the spread of bark beetle infestation is crucial to plan efficient sanitation felling of infested trees and prevent further propagation of beetle-induced tree mortality. We created a predictive model of subsequent year spot initiation and spot spreading within the TANABBO decision support system. The algorithm combines open-access Landsat-based vegetation change time-series data, a digital terrain model, and forest stand characteristics. We validated predicted susceptibility to bark beetle attack (separately for spot initiation and spot spreading) against beetle infestations in managed forests in the Bohemian Forest in the Czech Republic (Central Europe) in yearly time steps from 2007 to 2010. The predictive models of susceptibility to bark beetle attack had a high degree of reliability (area under the ROC curve - AUC: 0.75-0.82). We conclude that spot initiation and spot spreading prediction modules included within the TANABBO model have the potential to help forest managers to plan sanitation felling in managed forests under pressure of bark beetle outbreak.
YSO-asiasanat: kovakuoriaiset; metsäekosysteemit
Vapaat asiasanat: spatial predictive model; bark beetle infestation; GIS; ROC Curve; Norway Spruce
Liittyvät organisaatiot
OKM-raportointi: Kyllä
Raportointivuosi: 2020
JUFO-taso: 1