A1 Alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä aikakauslehdessä
A bark beetle infestation predictive model based on satellite data in the frame of decision support system TANABBO (2020)

Duriaciova, R., Munko, M., Barka, I., Koren, M., Resnerova, K., Holusa, J., Blazenec, M., Potterf, M., & Jakus, R. (2020). A bark beetle infestation predictive model based on satellite data in the frame of decision support system TANABBO. iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry, 13(3), 215-223. https://doi.org/10.3832/ifor3271-013

JYU-tekijät tai -toimittajat

Julkaisun tiedot

Julkaisun kaikki tekijät tai toimittajat: Duriaciova, R.; Munko, M.; Barka, I.; Koren, M.; Resnerova, K.; Holusa, J.; Blazenec, M,; Potterf, M.; Jakus, R.

Lehti tai sarja: iForest - Biogeosciences and Forestry

eISSN: 1971-7458

Julkaisuvuosi: 2020

Volyymi: 13

Lehden numero: 3

Artikkelin sivunumerot: 215-223

Kustantaja: Societa Italiana di Selvicoltura ed Ecologia Forestale (SISEF)

Julkaisumaa: Italia

Julkaisun kieli: englanti

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3832/ifor3271-013

Julkaisun avoin saatavuus: Avoimesti saatavilla

Julkaisukanavan avoin saatavuus: Kokonaan avoin julkaisukanava

Julkaisu on rinnakkaistallennettu (JYX): https://jyx.jyu.fi/handle/123456789/69815

Tiivistelmä

The European spruce bark beetle Ips typographus L. causes significant economic losses in managed coniferous forests in Central and Northern Europe. New infestations either occur in previously undisturbed forest stands (i.e., spot initiation) or depend on proximity to previous years’ infestations (i.e., spot spreading). Early identification of newly infested trees over the forested landscape limits the effective control measures. Accurate forecasting of the spread of bark beetle infestation is crucial to plan efficient sanitation felling of infested trees and prevent further propagation of beetle-induced tree mortality. We created a predictive model of subsequent year spot initiation and spot spreading within the TANABBO decision support system. The algorithm combines open-access Landsat-based vegetation change time-series data, a digital terrain model, and forest stand characteristics. We validated predicted susceptibility to bark beetle attack (separately for spot initiation and spot spreading) against beetle infestations in managed forests in the Bohemian Forest in the Czech Republic (Central Europe) in yearly time steps from 2007 to 2010. The predictive models of susceptibility to bark beetle attack had a high degree of reliability (area under the ROC curve - AUC: 0.75-0.82). We conclude that spot initiation and spot spreading prediction modules included within the TANABBO model have the potential to help forest managers to plan sanitation felling in managed forests under pressure of bark beetle outbreak.

YSO-asiasanat: kovakuoriaiset; metsäekosysteemit

Vapaat asiasanat: spatial predictive model; bark beetle infestation; GIS; ROC Curve; Norway Spruce

Liittyvät organisaatiot

OKM-raportointi: Kyllä

Raportointivuosi: 2020

JUFO-taso: 1