A1 Journal article (refereed)
A Bayesian Reconstruction of a Historical Population in Finland, 1647–1850 (2020)
Voutilainen, M., Helske, J., & Högmander, H. (2020). A Bayesian Reconstruction of a Historical Population in Finland, 1647–1850. Demography, 57(3), 1171-1192. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-020-00889-1
JYU authors or editors
Publication details
All authors or editors: Voutilainen, Miikka; Helske, Jouni; Högmander, Harri
Journal or series: Demography
ISSN: 0070-3370
eISSN: 1533-7790
Publication year: 2020
Volume: 57
Issue number: 3
Pages range: 1171-1192
Publisher: Springer
Publication country: United States
Publication language: English
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-020-00889-1
Publication open access: Openly available
Publication channel open access: Partially open access channel
Publication is parallel published (JYX): https://jyx.jyu.fi/handle/123456789/70034
Abstract
This article provides a novel method for estimating historical population development. We review the previous literature on historical population time-series estimates and propose a general outline to address the well-known methodological problems. We use a Bayesian hierarchical time-series model that allows us to integrate the parish-level data set and prior population information in a coherent manner. The procedure provides us with model-based posterior intervals for the final population estimates. We demonstrate its applicability by estimating the long-term development of Finland’s population from 1647 onward and simultaneously place the country among the very few to have an annual population series of such length available.
Keywords: demographic history; demographic changes; Early modern age; estimating (statistical methods); time series; Bayesian analysis
Free keywords: population history; population growth; early modern era; Bayesian estimation
Contributing organizations
Related projects
- Unified growth theories and the Finnish economic development 1600-2000. Estimation and analysis of time series
- Voutilainen, Miikka
- OP Group Research Foundation
- Contextualizing Finnish Early Modern Economy (1500-1860): Construction and Analysis of Aggregate Time Series
- Ojala, Jari
- Research Council of Finland
- Eksaktisti approksimoidut Monte Carlo -m
- Vihola, Matti
- Research Council of Finland
- Exact approximate Monte Carlo methods for complex Bayesian inference (research costs)
- Vihola, Matti
- Research Council of Finland
- Competitive funding to strengthen universities’ research profiles. Profiling actions at the JYU, round 3
- Hämäläinen, Keijo
- Research Council of Finland
Ministry reporting: Yes
Reporting Year: 2020
JUFO rating: 3