A1 Journal article (refereed)
Disentangling conditional effects of multiple regime shifts on Atlantic cod productivity (2020)

Perälä, T., Olsen, E. M., & Hutchings, J. A. (2020). Disentangling conditional effects of multiple regime shifts on Atlantic cod productivity. PLoS ONE, 15(11), Article e0237414. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0237414

JYU authors or editors

Publication details

All authors or editors: Perälä, Tommi; Olsen, Esben M.; Hutchings, Jeffrey A.

Journal or series: PLoS ONE

eISSN: 1932-6203

Publication year: 2020

Volume: 15

Issue number: 11

Article number: e0237414

Publisher: Public Library of Science

Publication country: United States

Publication language: English

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0237414

Publication open access: Openly available

Publication channel open access: Open Access channel

Publication is parallel published (JYX): https://jyx.jyu.fi/handle/123456789/73034

Publication is parallel published: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7703953/

Abstract

Regime shifts are increasingly prevalent in the ecological literature. However, definitions vary and detection methods are still developing. Here, we employ a novel statistical algorithm based on the Bayesian online change-point detection framework to simultaneously identify shifts in the mean and (or) variance of time series data. We detected multiple regime shifts in long-term (59–154 years) patterns of coastal Norwegian Atlantic cod (>70% decline) and putative drivers of cod productivity: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO); sea-surface temperature; zooplankton abundance; fishing mortality (F). The consequences of an environmental or climate-related regime shift on cod productivity are accentuated when regime shifts coincide, fishing mortality is high, and populations are small. The analyses suggest that increasing F increasingly sensitized cod in the mid 1970s and late 1990s to regime shifts in NAO, zooplankton abundance, and water temperature. Our work underscores the necessity of accounting for human-induced mortality in regime shift analyses of marine ecosystems.

Keywords: fish populations; population dynamics; Atlantic cod; environmental factors; climate changes; overfishing; time-series analysis; Bayesian analysis

Contributing organizations

Ministry reporting: Yes

Reporting Year: 2020

JUFO rating: 1