A1 Journal article (refereed)
Shared socioeconomic pathways for climate change research in Finland : co-developing extended SSP narratives for agriculture (2021)


Lehtonen, Heikki S.; Aakkula, Jyrki; Fronzek, Stefan; Helin, Janne; Hildén, Mikael; Huttunen, Suvi; Kaljonen, Minna; Niemi, Jyrki; Palosuo, Taru; Pirttioja, Nina; Rikkonen, Pasi; Varho, Vilja et al. (2021). Shared socioeconomic pathways for climate change research in Finland : co-developing extended SSP narratives for agriculture. Regional Environmental Change, 21, 7. DOI: 10.1007/s10113-020-01734-2


JYU authors or editors


Publication details

All authors or editors: Lehtonen, Heikki S.; Aakkula, Jyrki; Fronzek, Stefan; Helin, Janne; Hildén, Mikael; Huttunen, Suvi; Kaljonen, Minna; Niemi, Jyrki; Palosuo, Taru; Pirttioja, Nina; et al.

Journal or series: Regional Environmental Change

ISSN: 1436-3798

eISSN: 1436-378X

Publication year: 2021

Volume: 21

Article number: 7

Publisher: Springer

Publication country: Germany

Publication language: English

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-020-01734-2

Open Access: Open access publication published in a hybrid channel

Publication is parallel published (JYX): https://jyx.jyu.fi/handle/123456789/73715


Abstract

Shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), developed at global scale, comprise narrative descriptions and quantifications of future world developments that are intended for climate change scenario analysis. However, their extension to national and regional scales can be challenging. Here, we present SSP narratives co-developed with stakeholders for the agriculture and food sector in Finland. These are derived from intensive discussions at a workshop attended by approximately 39 participants offering a range of sectoral perspectives. Using general background descriptions of the SSPs for Europe, facilitated discussions were held in parallel for each of four SSPs reflecting very different contexts for the development of the sector up to 2050 and beyond. Discussions focused on five themes from the perspectives of consumers, producers and policy-makers, included a joint final session and allowed for post-workshop feedback. Results reflect careful sector-based, national-level interpretations of the global SSPs from which we have constructed consensus narratives. Our results also show important critical remarks and minority viewpoints. Interesting features of the Finnish narratives compared to the global SSP narratives include greater emphasis on environmental quality; significant land abandonment in SSPs with reduced livestock production and increased plant-based diets; continued need for some farm subsidies across all SSPs and opportunities for diversifying domestic production under scenarios of restricted trade. Our results can contribute to the development of more detailed national long-term scenarios for food and agriculture that are both relevant for local stakeholders and researchers as well as being consistent with global scenarios being applied internationally.


Keywords: climate changes; diets; food systems; sustainable agriculture; future expectations; environmental policy; social effects; economic effects

Free keywords: climate change; diet; food system; future scenarios; environment; policy


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Ministry reporting: Yes

Preliminary JUFO rating: 1


Last updated on 2021-20-01 at 15:21