A1 Journal article (refereed)
Accounting for species interactions is necessary for predicting how arctic arthropod communities respond to climate change (2021)

Abrego, N., Roslin, T., Huotari, T., Ji, Y., Schmidt, N. M., Wang, J., Yu, D. W., & Ovaskainen, O. (2021). Accounting for species interactions is necessary for predicting how arctic arthropod communities respond to climate change. Ecography, 44(6), 885-896. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.05547

JYU authors or editors

Publication details

All authors or editors: Abrego, Nerea; Roslin, Tomas; Huotari, Tea; Ji, Yinqiu; Schmidt, Niels Martin; Wang, Jiaxin; Yu, Douglas W.; Ovaskainen, Otso

Journal or series: Ecography

ISSN: 0906-7590

eISSN: 1600-0587

Publication year: 2021

Publication date: 22/03/2021

Volume: 44

Issue number: 6

Pages range: 885-896

Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell

Publication country: United Kingdom

Publication language: English

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.05547

Publication open access: Openly available

Publication channel open access: Open Access channel

Publication is parallel published (JYX): https://jyx.jyu.fi/handle/123456789/74891


Species interactions are known to structure ecological communities. Still, the influence of climate change on biodiversity has primarily been evaluated by correlating individual species distributions with local climatic descriptors, then extrapolating into future climate scenarios. We ask whether predictions on arctic arthropod response to climate change can be improved by accounting for species interactions. For this, we use a 14‐year‐long, weekly time series from Greenland, resolved to the species level by mitogenome mapping. During the study period, temperature increased by 2°C and arthropod species richness halved. We show that with abiotic variables alone, we are essentially unable to predict species responses, but with species interactions included, the predictive power of the models improves considerably. Cascading trophic effects thereby emerge as important in structuring biodiversity response to climate change. Given the need to scale up from species‐level to community‐level projections of biodiversity change, these results represent a major step forward for predictive ecology.

Keywords: arctic region; biodiversity; climate changes; biotic communities; food webs; arthropods

Free keywords: Arctic; Arthropoda; climate change; community assembly; food web; joint species distribution model; trophic cascade

Contributing organizations

Ministry reporting: Yes

Reporting Year: 2021

JUFO rating: 2

Last updated on 2022-20-09 at 15:48