A1 Alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä aikakauslehdessä
Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain : regional patterns and uncertainties (2021)
Virkkala, A., Aalto, J., Rogers, B. M., Tagesson, T., Treat, C. C., Natali, S. M., Watts, J. D., Potter, S., Lehtonen, A., Mauritz, M., Schuur, E. A., Kochendorfer, J., Zona, D., Oechel, W., Kobayashi, H., Humphreys, E., Goeckede, M., Iwata, H., Lafleur, P. M., . . . Luoto, M. (2021). Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain : regional patterns and uncertainties. Global Change Biology, 27(17), 4040-4059. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15659
JYU-tekijät tai -toimittajat
Julkaisun tiedot
Julkaisun kaikki tekijät tai toimittajat: Virkkala, Anna‐Maria; Aalto, Juha; Rogers, Brendan M.; Tagesson, Torbern; Treat, Claire C.; Natali, Susan M.; Watts, Jennifer D.; Potter, Stefano; Lehtonen, Aleksi; Mauritz, Marguerite; et al.
Lehti tai sarja: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 1354-1013
eISSN: 1365-2486
Julkaisuvuosi: 2021
Ilmestymispäivä: 28.04.2021
Volyymi: 27
Lehden numero: 17
Artikkelin sivunumerot: 4040-4059
Kustantaja: Wiley
Julkaisumaa: Britannia
Julkaisun kieli: englanti
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15659
Julkaisun avoin saatavuus: Avoimesti saatavilla
Julkaisukanavan avoin saatavuus: Osittain avoin julkaisukanava
Julkaisu on rinnakkaistallennettu (JYX): https://jyx.jyu.fi/handle/123456789/75329
Tiivistelmä
The regional variability in tundra and boreal carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes can be high, complicating efforts to quantify sink‐source patterns across the entire region. Statistical models are increasingly used to predict (i.e., upscale) CO2 fluxes across large spatial domains, but the reliability of different modeling techniques, each with different specifications and assumptions, has not been assessed in detail. Here, we compile eddy covariance and chamber measurements of annual and growing season CO2 fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) during 1990–2015 from 148 terrestrial high‐latitude (i.e., tundra and boreal) sites to analyze the spatial patterns and drivers of CO2 fluxes and test the accuracy and uncertainty of different statistical models. CO2 fluxes were upscaled at relatively high spatial resolution (1 km2) across the high‐latitude region using five commonly‐used statistical models and their ensemble, i.e., the median of all five models, using climatic, vegetation, and soil predictors. We found the performance of machine learning and ensemble predictions to outperform traditional regression methods. We also found the predictive performance of NEE‐focused models to be low, relative to models predicting GPP and ER. Our data compilation and ensemble predictions showed that CO2 sink strength was larger in the boreal biome (observed and predicted average annual NEE –46 and –29 g C m–2 yr‐1, respectively) compared to tundra (average annual NEE +10 and –2 g C m–2 yr‐1). This pattern was associated with large spatial variability, reflecting local heterogeneity in soil organic carbon stocks, climate, and vegetation productivity. The terrestrial ecosystem CO2 budget, estimated using the annual NEE ensemble prediction, suggests the high‐latitude region was on average an annual CO2 sink during 1990–2015, although uncertainty remains high.
YSO-asiasanat: ikirouta; arktinen alue; kasvihuonekaasut; hiilidioksidi; hiilinielut; kaukokartoitus; paikkatietoanalyysi
Vapaat asiasanat: Arctic; CO2 balance; empirical; greenhouse gas; land; permafrost; remote sensing
Liittyvät organisaatiot
Hankkeet, joissa julkaisu on tehty
- Kun ikivanha kohtaa modernin – kasviperäisen hiilen vaikutus hapettomaan hajotukseen arktisissa ikiroutamaissa
- Marushchak, Maija
- Suomen Akatemia
OKM-raportointi: Kyllä
Raportointivuosi: 2021
JUFO-taso: 3