A1 Journal article (refereed)
Estimation of causal effects with small data in the presence of trapdoor variables (2021)


Helske, J., Tikka, S., & Karvanen, J. (2021). Estimation of causal effects with small data in the presence of trapdoor variables. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A: Statistics in Society, 184(3), 1030-1051. https://doi.org/10.1111/rssa.12699


JYU authors or editors


Publication details

All authors or editorsHelske, Jouni; Tikka, Santtu; Karvanen, Juha

Journal or seriesJournal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A: Statistics in Society

ISSN0964-1998

eISSN1467-985X

Publication year2021

Publication date19/05/2021

Volume184

Issue number3

Pages range1030-1051

PublisherWiley-Blackwell

Publication countryUnited States

Publication languageEnglish

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1111/rssa.12699

Publication open accessOpenly available

Publication channel open accessPartially open access channel

Publication is parallel published (JYX)https://jyx.jyu.fi/handle/123456789/75873

Publication is parallel publishedhttps://arxiv.org/abs/2003.03187


Abstract

We consider the problem of estimating causal effects of interventions from observational data when well-known back-door and front-door adjustments are not applicable. We show that when an identifiable causal effect is subject to an implicit functional constraint that is not deducible from conditional independence relations, the estimator of the causal effect can exhibit bias in small samples. This bias is related to variables that we call trapdoor variables. We use simulated data to study different strategies to account for trapdoor variables and suggest how the related trapdoor bias might be minimized. The importance of trapdoor variables in causal effect estimation is illustrated with real data from the Life Course 1971–2002 study. Using this data set, we estimate the causal effect of education on income in the Finnish context. Bayesian modelling allows us to take the parameter uncertainty into account and to present the estimated causal effects as posterior distributions.


KeywordsBayesian analysisestimating (statistical methods)causality

Free keywordsBayesian estimation; bias; causality; functional constraint; identifiability


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Ministry reportingYes

Reporting Year2021

JUFO rating2


Last updated on 2024-11-03 at 14:29