A1 Journal article (refereed)
Mammal assemblage composition predicts global patterns in emerging infectious disease risk (2021)

Wang, Y. X., Matson, K. D., Santini, L., Visconti, P., Hilbers, J. P., Huijbregts, M. A., Xu, Y., Prins, H. H., Allen, T., Huang, Z. Y., & de Boer, W. F. (2021). Mammal assemblage composition predicts global patterns in emerging infectious disease risk. Global Change Biology, 27(20), 4995-5007. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15784

JYU authors or editors

Publication details

All authors or editors: Wang, Yingying X.G.; Matson, Kevin D.; Santini, Luca; Visconti, Piero; Hilbers, Jelle P.; Huijbregts, Mark A.J.; Xu, Yanjie; Prins, Herbert H.T.; Allen, Toph; Huang, Zheng. Y.X.; et al.

Journal or series: Global Change Biology

ISSN: 1354-1013

eISSN: 1365-2486

Publication year: 2021

Publication date: 02/07/2021

Volume: 27

Issue number: 20

Pages range: 4995-5007

Publisher: Wiley

Publication country: United Kingdom

Publication language: English

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15784

Publication open access: Openly available

Publication channel open access: Partially open access channel

Publication is parallel published (JYX): https://jyx.jyu.fi/handle/123456789/77380

Abstract

As a source of emerging infectious diseases, wildlife assemblages (and related spatial patterns) must be quantitatively assessed to help identify high-risk locations. Previous assessments have largely focussed on the distributions of individual species; however, transmission dynamics are expected to depend on assemblage composition. Moreover, disease-diversity relationships have mainly been studied in the context of species loss, but assemblage composition and disease risk (e.g., infection prevalence in wildlife assemblages) can change without extinction. Based on the predicted distributions and abundances of 4,466 mammal species, we estimated global patterns of disease risk through the calculation of the community-level basic reproductive ratio R0, an index of invasion potential, persistence, and maximum prevalence of a pathogen in a wildlife assemblage. For density-dependent diseases, we found that, in addition to tropical areas which are commonly viewed as infectious disease hotspots, northern temperate latitudes included high-risk areas. We also forecasted the effects of climate change and habitat loss from 2015 to 2035. Over this period, many local assemblages showed no net loss of species richness, but the assemblage composition (i.e., the mix of species and their abundances) changed considerably. Simultaneously, most areas experienced a decreased risk of density-dependent diseases but an increased risk of frequency-dependent diseases. We further explored the factors driving these changes in disease risk. Our results suggest that biodiversity and changes therein jointly influence disease risk. Understanding these changes and their drivers and ultimately identifying emerging infectious disease hotspots can help health officials prioritise resource distribution.

Keywords: communicable diseases; zoonoses; wild animals; mammals; fauna; biotic communities; biodiversity; climate changes; risk assessment; animal geography

Free keywords: emerging infectious diseases; assemblage composition; climate change; habitat loss; infectious disease hotspots; species distributions

Contributing organizations

Ministry reporting: Yes

Reporting Year: 2021

JUFO rating: 3