D4 Published development or research report or study
Benchmark Workshop on Atlantic Salmon (Salmo salar) in the North Atlantic (WKBSALMON) (2023)
Perälä, T., White, J., Adams, G., April, J., Bárðarson, H., Ahlbeck Bergendahl, I., Bolstad, G., Breau, C., Bull, C., Chaput, G., Cooper, A., Dauphin, G., Erkinaro, J., Gillson, J., Gregory, S., Jepsen, N., Kermoade, M., Lebot, C., Legault, C., . . . Wennevik, V. (2023). Benchmark Workshop on Atlantic Salmon (Salmo salar) in the North Atlantic (WKBSALMON). International Council for the Exploration of the Sea. ICES Scientific Reports, 5:112. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.24752079
JYU authors or editors
Publication details
All authors or editors: Perälä, Tommi; White, Jonathan; Adams, Grant; April, Julien; Bárðarson, Hlynur; Ahlbeck Bergendahl, Ida; Bolstad, Geir; Breau, Cindy; Bull, Colin; Chaput, Gerald; et al.
Journal or series: ICES Scientific Reports
eISSN: 2618-1371
Publication year: 2023
Publication date: 11/12/2023
Number in series: 5:112
Number of pages in the book: 85
Publisher: International Council for the Exploration of the Sea
Place of Publication: Copenhagen
Publication country: Denmark
Publication language: English
DOI: https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.24752079
Publication open access: Openly available
Publication channel open access: Open Access channel
Publication is parallel published (JYX): https://jyx.jyu.fi/handle/123456789/92635
Abstract
The LCM will replace three Pre-Fisheries Abundance (PFA) forecast models, aligned to three management units, one eastern North America and two Northeast Atlantic European complex-es of stock-units. The LCM enables a more comprehensive and consistent approach, account-ing for migration and maturation of salmon by stock-unit and a hierarchical (over stock-units) modelling of post-smolt survival and proportion maturing in the first year at sea.
The LCM uses outputs from two “Run Reconstruction” models, one for each of eastern North America and Northeast Atlantic origin salmon. These process catch data and exploitation rates and/or returns at stock-unit spatial scales to estimate returning numbers and catches of salm-on by sea-age group. The LCM model uses a similar sea-age group structure for all stock-units resulting in a harmonized life cycle for Atlantic salmon from the North Atlantic.
The LCM forecasts estimates of returning salmon by stock-unit based on the post-smolt survival and proportion maturing parameters, forecast forward as a random-walk, from the most recent observations and accounting for “banked” maturing and non-maturing salmon. Forecast returns to stock-units may be compared to Conservation Limit (CL) reference points and “Spawner Escapement Reserves” (SERs – reference points prior to any marine fishing activities) at national and international levels to quantify the risk to the salmon stocks under different mixed-fisheries catch levels.
The LCM was found to provide estimates of stock status and forecasts in line with perceptions and previously used modelling frameworks and to be robust to a range of settings and uncertainties.
Keywords: fish populations; fish stock management; forecasts; statistical models; Atlantic salmon
Contributing organizations
Related projects
- Resolving complex eco-evolutionary dynamics of aquatic ecosystems faced with human-induced and environmental alterations
- Kuparinen, Anna
- European Commission
- How will multiple stressors impact cold-water lake food webs and their salmonid fishes?
- Eloranta, Antti
- Research Council of Finland
Ministry reporting: Yes
VIRTA submission year: 2023